Whilst it’s perfectly fair to assume he didn’t stay there, the balance of his post-injury form requires a lot to be taken on trust regarding retained ability. Gordon Elliott’s contender, Jalon D’oudairies, boasts an unbeaten record in two bumper starts and is considered a strong prospect for the race after a victory at Leopardstown last time. Elliott also saddles Romeo Coolio, an impressive debut winner at Fairyhouse who looks an exciting prospect for staying hurdles next season.
London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night Notes
There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022. The first handicap of the week and one that normally goes to a runner close to the head of the market. Of the home team, Edwardstone’s case dwarfs his compatriots, though it is possible that War Lord may significantly reduce the margin by which he was beaten in December.
The Secret Behind Bolts Up Daily: Changing the Horse Racing Game
If you’ve been reading stuff on here for any length of time, you’ll have noted myself, but especially Dave Renham and Chris Worrall, evangelising about the value of draw and run style. Again, these angles play especially well on the all-weather, because most synthetic tracks in UK and Ireland race on turning tracks, many of them from the minimum trip up. That’s it for the Cheltenham Festival Day 2 winners, and we have been blessed with fantastic action so far.
Horse Racing Betting in 2023: Five Key Differentiators
- Hence one needs to be aware that results for runners priced 6/1 or shorter are difficult to predict for a one–off Festival, 28 races always being a small sample size.
- Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25!
- Russell was forced to miss the bulk of the latest National Hunt season – including the spring festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown – and also sat out last month’s Galway Festival.
- But the winning post is not on the home bend and there were no signs of panic from de Boinville, as good a man for the big occasion as there is riding in Britain at the moment.
- 9/4 was hardly rock n’ roll but he was against quantity rather than quality opposition, even allowing for the grade.
- Simply click a price on Race Passes and we’ll take you off to place your bet with your favourite bookmaker.
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Luck in running is needed by all; most have a little more meat on their price than this lad. Willie is 0/14 in this race but went very close last year when Saint Sam was second (Ciel De Neige 3rd in 2019, too). Of that last named cohort, maybe Teahupoo has advanced his claims since the turn of the year. He’s still yet to race in Grade 1 company, but has been dominant in winning a brace of Grade 3’s either side of a Grade 2 score. He’s looked like there is plenty more to come but his potential is more than factored into quotes of 8/1 especially when noting his lack of form on a sound surface (for which, granted, he could improve, though I don’t expect him to). Trained by Colin Tizzard, his sole defeat in four progressive chase starts was when well seen off, but still best of the rest, behind Edwardstone in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December.
‘His season starts here’ – 85/1 Gordon Elliott Down Royal accumulator on Friday
Before being sidelined last autumn, he was in the saddle when Envoi Allen stretched his unbeaten record to nine races in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. Russell was forced to miss the bulk of the latest National Hunt season – including the spring festivals at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown – and also sat out last month’s Galway Festival. Formerly trained on the Flat by David Menuisier, the grey made a successful debut over hurdles at Punchestown last month and was among the leading contenders on his return to the level. For De Sousa it was confirmation of a return to the very top in Britain, after his spell in Hong Kong ended prematurely following a 10-month suspension imposed for breaching betting rules. GOD’S OWN Has some solid form in his record but is a light of former days and hard to fancy.
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LH – It’s a horse race (« thankfully »), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the « wise guy » horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race. Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along.
Golden Days
We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.
Two Cheltenham Festival Side Bets to Consider
There have been ten headgear-wearing winners of all aged handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival since 2008, from 293 runners. That’s a 3.41% strike rate for a loss of 119 points (ROI -40.61). Those without headgear won 37 from 865 (4.28% SR, -256 at SP, ROI -29.6%). There’s no shortie in the betting this time, current prices being 3/1 and upwards your pick. Tenuously top of that pile is Telmesomethinggirl, trained by Henry de Bromhead and running in the Kenny Alexander colours of Honeysuckle, meaning it could be quite a 45 minutes or so for connections. This mare won the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival over two miles, but has been beaten in all three starts since.
Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Futurity Trophy Weekend)
44 of the 54 winners in the sample came from avoiding these negatives, from just 38.5% of the runners. They were collectively worth a profit of 7.57 points at SP, and a slightly more worthwhile 31.15 points at BSP. There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Festival novice Grade 1’s. But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat. Interestingly, perhaps – or maybe just coincidence – two of the four winners at 16/1 or longer in the last decade came in the Albert Bartlett.
- Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge.
- If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible.
- It’s such a thrilling sport and at its best when you get the chance to see the horses close up in the flesh.
- But the big opportunity in my view is with draw and run style in concert.
- It looks like this year’s Champion Hurdle may be run at an even to quick tempo, with both Appreciate It and Teahupoo generally going forward.
How to quantify trainer form pre-Cheltenham?
Her market danger, Allegorie De Vassy, has a propensity to jump right at the fences, which is a cause for concern at this left-handed circuit. The County Hurdle is often won by a Graded performer, most notably last season’s subsequent multiple Grade 1 winner State Man. His trainer, Willie Mullins, has landed this prize twice in the previous three runnings and boasts huge claims again this year. HUNTERS YARN is the clear pick for the handler, arriving for this handicap debut after an effortless Listed Hurdle success at Navan last month. The Fame And Glory gelding has a smart turn of foot and could be leniently treated from an opening handicap mark of 147.
American racehorse owner hopes to win at Aintree 100 years after his great uncle triumphed in the Grand National
- They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).
- In the Balco Coastal camp, possibly got there too soon in the Scilly Isles, and might appreciate going left-handed.
- Where you find football bets, you also frequently find horse racing wagers, as the two are the most popular sports in the UK.
- He does finish second unnervingly frequently – he’s allowed one to pass in five of his last six chases – but otherwise is a strong box-ticker for all that he’s no Prestbury Park previous.
- « She’s running in the Champion Hurdle », all my friends tell me.
- Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped.
- In that light, she’s of minor interest at 14/1 each way and also worth at least a second glance when the ‘without the favourite’ market emerges.
- On official ratings, Gaillard du Mesnil is clear of his field and he obviously has the talent to win; but his inability to put races to bed, even if they have been higher level races, has to be a worry at the price.
In another life his jockey Nico de Boinville might have been one of those soldiers who is unexceptional in peacetime but extraordinarily cool under fire. After Douvan had crashed out at the last ditch, while leading, there were five horses in with a chance turning in. High quality Saturday with the second day at Wetherby who feature a pair of Grade Two races plus a Listed.
Supported by a valuable card at Ascot and a return to Ayr. That quality continues on Sunday with a good card at Carlisle containing two Listed races and we also have Huntingdon. ‘The flat season draws towards its conclusion and the number of jumps fixtures increases for the week ahead. After a largely wet October we have a dry and mild spell forecast for most areas and the changing going conditions could have an important part to play. Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect. I put him in provisionally at 9/4 which is at the top end of the prices on offer.
- Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.
- In that favourite data, the years 2008 to 2012 saw the smallest market leader numbers by some margin.
- The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide.
- Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value – which we took full advantage of.
- Winners have emerged from across the spectrum, with the winning-most ages from a number of victories perspective being the losing-most from a betting perspective.
- Jockeys are important at this meeting, however, and the experience of Rachael Blackmore versus the exuberance of Chester Williams tilts the pendulum in favour of Champion Green if having to choose between them.
- A quick look at the racecard will debunk the myth that reading the form is hard.
Cheltenham Festival 2021: 7 NRNB ‘Free Hits’
He’s since won another five Supremes, each ridden by the stable jockey (Ruby four times, Paul Townend once). That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey – and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon). Well, classy types have a decent record in the race and Ballyadam, despite the steadier of twelve stone, has bundles of it. A hard task off top weight, but definitely one for those exacta and trifecta mixes.
Not only is Monkfish unbeaten in three chase starts this term, he is also the reigning Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle champ, earning a hard-fought verdict over… That was his only visit to Cheltenham so he is unbeaten in one both at the track and at the Festival. OK, so that last one, and probably/hopefully the last two, are of no consequence to Cheltenham, mercifully; but the others have each caused some degree of consternation in the weeks and months preceding the Festival. With six days until tapes rise on the Supreme, we can hope that all will hereafter be more serene, barring the perennial raft of late scratches and shock race switcheroos.
- It looks a minefield to be honest with most of the field potential improvers.
- However, as a general rule, the stronger the favourite the better.
- MT – Coming round to Bravemansgame having not been a fan early season – he’s very hard to knock.
- A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented.
- A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process.
- He is not a guaranteed runner, hence the insurance caveat of NRNB, but this race is looking less and less clear cut by the day.
- Skybet are paying EIGHT places on this race, and a couple of others are seven places deep.
If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap by adding a tip on the race here. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Doncaster Racecourse section for links to these. Getting one’s head around sectional timing is not the easiest way to play the horses, but there are real insights to be gleaned for those who take some time to figure it out.
30 Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
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Davy Russell stood down for Fred Winter
Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.
True, he was well seen off by Marie’s Rock in the Relkeel, though that was over an extra half mile; and he was no match for State Man in the County a year ago. He has some impressive performances to his name, most of them on genuine good ground, but I can’t quite shake that County clunk from my memory banks. Kilbeg King got low at several of his fences at Ascot but still stayed on dourly at the end to force the winner to pull out all the stops. On that cheerful note, let’s dive into the latest renewal, with just the seven runners meaning there’s no point looking for an each-way angle into the race. All seven of the runners have a chance and the first thing I want to say is that the old advice that Derek O’Connor’s mount already has a 5lb advantage is not to be believed.
This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.
So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book. The string of numbers to the left of each horse’s name are the form figures and they are places they have finished in their most recent races, reading from left to right with regards to their latest position. So if a horse has figures of , it would have won its last three races but finished sixth the time before. I’ve always been a big believer that it’s the best horse who wins the race and not necessarily the best trainer or jockey, but that’s a debate that continues to run.
Log in to your existing bookmaker account when you first open the app, or via the ‘Accounts’ tab. Go to the cards, pick a race and once you’ve made your selection, simply tap the odds button beside the horse you like.4. Our RP Recommends section has plenty of information and offers impartial advice from our experts in order to help know who, when, where and how to place your bet. Competition among bookmakers, particularly Bolts Up Daily online, is fierce, so don’t be afraid to open accounts with multiple firms and if you are betting on course, be sure to shop around the betting ring and bet with whoever is offering the best price. The No Foto Needed service is an established member SBC’s Premium Tipster range and features winning racing tips from a true racing expert. He has not been disgraced since, but the drop back to six furlongs looks a good move.
Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon. Plus we have Uttoxeter who are subject to a third inspection. With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess. Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year.
More than that, the same horses seem to have hit the frame with regularity. In 2020, Ireland’s trainers saddled seven of the dozen runners, again taking top honours but this time ceding the consolation spots to the domestic quintet. Irish runners finished 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th and fell.
Ontheropes is a slight rarity in that he’s a Cheveley Park Stud entry, and trained by Willie Mullins, that is not favourite. He has had plenty of experience, however, which is definitely the way to go in the National Hunt Chase, and breeding suggests this trip is within range. The form of his fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in the autumn is strong and if quicker ground ekes out a pound or two, he could cause a minor surprise. He’s undeniably well treated, then, but hitting a serious flat spot on heavy ground doesn’t translate brilliantly to the rough and tumble of a fast ground 22-runner charge across Cleeve Hill.
Taking 4-1 as an example, a successful £1 bet would yield a return of £5 – the £4 winnings plus the stake. A horse with a string of 1s by their name is likely to be a lot shorter in the betting than one with 0s, for example. Fresh always runs his race but may lack a yard of pace these days. Two Tempting finished ahead of a few of these at Chester and is always underestimated in the betting.
